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Total income for the median family in California fell more than 5 percent between 2007 and 2009 (the official recession years) and an additional 6 percent between 2009 and 2010.
Bottom Line: While recessions are not formally defined for state economies, economic data for the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023 appear consistent with California experiencing a mild recession.
U.S. strategists expect a meaningful earnings recession of -16% for 2023 and a significant recovery in 2024.
Most commentators and analysts use, as a practical definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP)?the value of all goods and services a country produces. Although this definition is a useful rule of thumb, it has drawbacks.
Hear this out loud PauseA recession has been in the forecast for much of 2023. Yet an economic downturn ? formally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP growth ? has yet to happen. ?A recession is obviously going to happen at some point,? said Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.