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A weather forecast is made up of three steps: observation and analysis, extrapolation to determine the state of the atmosphere in the future, and estimation of specific variables. One method of qualitative extrapolation is to conclude the weather features will continue to travel in the same direction as they have been.

Satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, Ships, buoys, radar, and other land-based platforms are important tools used in hurricane tracking and prediction. While a tropical cyclone is over the open ocean, remote measurements of the storm's intensity and track are made primarily via satellites.

Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS) Internet access to Canadian aviation weather information is available through the NAV CANADA Aviation Weather Web Site (.flightplanning.navcanada.ca). Canadian NOTAM and flight plan filing is also available.

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time, and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time.

Through our flight information centres (FIC), NAV CANADA can provide interpretive weather briefings, advisory services and flight plan filing by telephone. Within Canada, call 1-866-WX-BRIEF to reach your FIC.

The forecast process is roughly the same regardless of the type of weather. Our scientists thoroughly review current observations using technology such as radar, satellite and data from an assortment of ground-based and airborne instruments to get a complete picture of current conditions.