Get Cross-impact Method By Theodore Jay Gordon 1994 - Citeseer

The CROSS-IMPACT METHOD, developed by Theodore Jay Gordon in 1994, is a structured approach for analyzing the interactions between future events. This guide will provide step-by-step instructions on how to effectively fill out this method, allowing users to forecast potential outcomes based on interconnected events systematically.

Follow the steps to complete the CROSS-IMPACT METHOD.

1. Click the 'Get Form' button to obtain the CROSS-IMPACT METHOD document and open it in your preferred editing tool.
2. Identify the primary events that you want to analyze. List between 10 and 40 relevant future events based on literature reviews and expert interviews. Ensure that the events included are pertinent to the study area to avoid unnecessary complications.
3. Estimate the initial probability for each event. This probability indicates the likelihood of each event occurring by a specific future year. It is essential to assess these estimates while considering the potential influence of other events.
4. Construct a cross-impact matrix. This matrix will allow you to evaluate how each event's occurrence impacts the probabilities of other events. Ask the question, 'If event m occurs, what is the new probability of event n?' for each possible event pair.
5. Conduct sensitivity analysis by varying probability estimates for specific events. This helps you assess how changes influence the overall probabilities and interrelations in your analysis.
6. Finalize the cross-impact matrix. After multiple iterations and adjustments, confirm the resulting probabilities and document them as your analysis report.
7. Consider saving, downloading, printing, or sharing your completed cross-impact analysis for future reference or collaborative projects.

Start utilizing the CROSS-IMPACT METHOD online to enhance your futures research and decision-making processes.